INTRODUCTION

Commercialization of Advanced Technologies (CAT) is the progression of a technology from idea to full-scale commercial adoption. This requires igniting the movement of technologies across the research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) continuum through close coordination and partnership with stakeholders. To do this effectively, phased research and development must be done with the goal of accepted market commercialization in mind.

Commercialization lies at the core of the McIntosh Technologies Consulting (MTC) mission. The federal government is the largest consumer of advanced next generation technology (ANGT), and the tax money invested in technology portfolios can achieve greatest impact when innovative technologies traverse the RDD&D continuum and gain full-scale commercial deployment. MTC acts as a steward of the RDD&D continuum, guiding firms through the Other Transactional Authority (OTA) process, to achieve their missions across the breadth of activities through a suite of tools, programs, and federal funding, while remaining focused on commercialization.

MANAGING RISKS

Managing Risks through the Adoption Readiness Level (ARL) Framework is how the MTC adoption process begins.

To achieve deployment, the technology must be de-risked, and the ecosystem economics established so that every player in the value chain has a viable economic model for deployment. Managing a technology portfolio solely through the widely used and understood Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) stage-gates is not enough.

When Commercialization fails, it is typically not because of the technology’s fundamentals, but because ecosystem economics have not been addressed, or critical players have not come onboard. The economic and business model requirements for deployment, and a technology’s societal license-to-operate, should shape the technical problem definition and development of solutions at all stages of the RDD&D continuum.

MTC utilizes the Adoption Readiness Level (ARL) framework to complement TRL. The framework assesses the adoption risks of any ANGT and translates the risk assessment into a readiness score, representing the readiness of a technology to be adopted by the ecosystem.

ARL represents key factors for private sector uptake beyond technology readiness, and can be determined by performing a qualitative, fact-based risk assessment across 17 dimensions of adoption risk, spanning four core risk areas.

CORE RISK AREAS

Value Proposition: Assesses the ability for an innovative technology to meet the functionality required by the market at a price point that customers are willing to pay, to meet the market demand (a broadened definition of “product-market fit”).

DELIVERED COST / FUNCTIONAL PERFORMANCE / EASE OF USE / COMPLEXITY

Market Acceptance: Captures the target market(s) demand characteristics and risks posed by existing players — including competitors, customers, and other value chain players.

DEMAND MATURITY / MARKET OPENNESS / MARKET SIZE

DOWNSTREAM VALUE CHAIN

Resource Maturity: Determines risks standing in the way of inputs needed to produce the technology solution.

CAPITAL FLOW / PROJECT DEVELOPMENT / INTEGRATION / MANAGEMENT / INFRASTRUCTURE / MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY CHAIN / MATERIALS SOURCING / WORKFORCE

License to Operate: Identifies the societal (national, state, and local), and non-economic risks that can hinder the deployment of a technology.

REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT / POLICY ENVIRONMENT / PERMITTING AND CITING / ENVIRONMENTAL AND SAFETY / COMMUNITY PERCEPTION

Once the ARL assessment is completed for the technology solutions in a set of portfolios, ARL can be used in a complementary manner with TRL assessments to manage the maturation of a technology portfolio across the RDD&D continuum.

Who Should Use ARL?

Any organization with a new ANGT that may span multiple types and scales of technology solutions can benefit from using ARL framework. MTC uses ARL methodology to inform on program design, investment, and risk management decisions.

Although there are existing frameworks that capture various elements of ARL, ARL attempts to gather “commercial adoption risks” in a comprehensive and structured way that is applicable to a wide range of technology types – from small consumer applications to large-scale infrastructure deployments and allows for comparisons across different portfolios.

Using the MTC ARL process allows organizations to apply the industry best practice of managing technology risk alongside adoption risk. This can be used to gain a strategic view of an existing technology portfolio, or to design and set goals for a new program. The tool is not intended to be a rigorous and quantitative analysis across each dimension of adoption risk, though detailed risk registers can be developed using the ARL framework as a starting point.

The tool is deliberately simple to allow for easy adoption and extensibility. The power of using the MTC ARL process is to quickly identify where there may be critical barriers in a technology’s pathway to market that need to be addressed for full-scale deployment to happen, and the movement required to have the technology reach the next stage of the RDD&D continuum.

RESEARCHERS, TECHNICAL SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS, AND PROJECT MANAGERS

For those who may typically be focused on driving technology readiness for earlier stage technologies, the MTC assessment process itself can spur important conversations about how technology solutions can be applied in commercial settings, and how areas of non-technical risk may stand in the way of adoption.

While these individuals may not be experts in non-technical risk areas, such conversations can spur early identification of risk mitigation opportunities, R&D design changes or re-prioritizations, and even early commercial partnerships that can improve the technology’s ultimate value.

PORTFOLIO MANAGERS AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEADERS

For managers and leaders, assessments can inform investment decisions across their technology portfolio over time. They can also create a taxonomy of technologies and suggest useful key performance indicators to track to assess the progress and health of their portfolios.

The assessment process facilitates discussions with technical staff around areas of risk and potential mitigation strategies, and identifies blind spots where additional investment, frequently in the form of research, deeper market analysis, or policy action is needed.